Track Record
| Class | Calls | ~Indep. | Hit rate | 95% CI | Brier | Avg move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy | 130 | 8 | 46.9% ≈coin | 22.0–78.0% | 0.385 | -3.75% |
| FX Crosses | 1151 | 80 | 58.5% ≈coin | 48.0–69.0% | 0.26 | +0.25% |
| FX Majors | 368 | 25 | 69.0% ≈coin | 48.0–83.0% | 0.3 | +0.61% |
| Metals | 159 | 13 | 31.4% ≈coin | 13.0–58.0% | 0.246 | -4.83% |
| Other | 6 | 2 | 0.0% ≈coin | 0.0–66.0% | 0.137 | -1.81% |
Rows are not trials. A view logged daily for a week against the same move is one observation, not seven. Every interval on this page is computed on the effective sample — distinct non-overlapping 30-day windows per instrument — and correlated instruments (the seven CHF crosses are closer to one bet than seven) mean even that overstates independence. Where an interval includes 50%, the ≈coin tag says so.
Resolution rule, fixed ex-ante: a call is correct when the sign of spot at the horizon matches the published direction. Weekend rows that duplicated Friday's stale quotes (8.9% of the historical sample) are excluded, and the logger no longer runs when markets are closed.
Numbers this engine has retired. A 74.6% short-CHF hit rate once lived here: honestly counted it is 14 weekly factor observations (9 won, 5 lost) whose interval includes 50%. A 96.4% on 60-day holds was one trend episode wearing 138 rows. Neither is quoted anywhere on this site without those qualifiers, and the disciplines that killed them (effective-n, pre-registered decomposition, clone dedupe) produced everything above.
Standing risk disciplines, all measured before adopted: views under 0.55 conviction publish as leans, not calls (threshold frozen 24 Aug 2026, judged only on forward flow); metals and energy conviction is capped at 0.25 (metals lose in replay; energy conviction bands carry no information); direction changes must clear a 7-day dwell or a named trigger; the short-CHF book answers to a regime governor (currently HEALTHY: 16/20 trailing trials correct); and no single event timestamp may quietly carry the book (a 30% concentration ceiling is flagged by the self fact-check).
| Overdue resolutions right now | 0 | the easiest way to fake a track record is to sit on losers past their due date and quietly drop them; this counter is recomputed from the database on every page load, and anything above zero is a problem you should ask about |
| Published-book replay | -0.45% (-0.61% net of costs) | every published view held until the engine changed it, marked to market over 66 trading days; Sharpe -0.72 ±1.95 — not statistically significant at this sample size, and it says so here rather than waiting for you to work that out |
| Engine version | e681fee495b9 |
a hash of the decision code, stamped on every published snapshot, so any change to how these numbers are produced is visible as a break in the series |
| Pair | Calls | W / L | Hit rate | Brier | Avg move | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EURCHF | 67 | 64 / 3 |
95.5%
|
0.303 | +0.82% | open → |
| AUDUSD | 55 | 48 / 7 |
87.3%
|
0.466 | +1.21% | open → |
| EURUSD | 30 | 25 / 5 |
83.3%
|
0.301 | +0.65% | open → |
| AUDCHF | 62 | 50 / 12 |
80.6%
|
0.335 | +1.03% | open → |
| CHFJPY | 61 | 48 / 13 |
78.7%
|
0.285 | +0.97% | open → |
| GBPCHF | 60 | 47 / 13 |
78.3%
|
0.203 | +0.47% | open → |
| USDCAD | 67 | 52 / 15 |
77.6%
|
0.199 | +0.71% | open → |
| NZDCHF | 59 | 45 / 14 |
76.3%
|
0.258 | +1.24% | open → |
| NZDUSD | 59 | 44 / 15 |
74.6%
|
0.2 | +1.01% | open → |
| CADCHF | 58 | 43 / 15 |
74.1%
|
0.242 | +0.80% | open → |
| CADJPY | 48 | 35 / 13 |
72.9%
|
0.24 | +0.42% | open → |
| NZDCAD | 62 | 40 / 22 |
64.5%
|
0.272 | +0.29% | open → |
| AUDCAD | 57 | 35 / 22 |
61.4%
|
0.355 | +0.09% | open → |
| EURNZD | 58 | 35 / 23 |
60.3%
|
0.32 | +0.21% | open → |
| EURGBP | 60 | 36 / 24 |
60.0%
|
0.233 | -0.11% | open → |
| USDJPY | 61 | 36 / 25 |
59.0%
|
0.281 | +0.74% | open → |
| USDCHF | 65 | 37 / 28 |
56.9%
|
0.377 | -0.16% | open → |
| EURCAD | 62 | 35 / 27 |
56.5%
|
0.275 | +0.18% | open → |
| GBPCAD | 58 | 32 / 26 |
55.2%
|
0.214 | +0.27% | open → |
| NZDJPY | 55 | 28 / 27 |
50.9%
|
0.246 | -0.13% | open → |
| WTI | 65 | 33 / 32 |
50.8%
|
0.329 | -3.01% | open → |
| BRENT | 65 | 28 / 37 |
43.1%
|
0.441 | -4.50% | open → |
| AUDNZD | 60 | 24 / 36 |
40.0%
|
0.25 | -0.21% | open → |
| GBPUSD | 31 | 12 / 19 |
38.7%
|
0.282 | -0.15% | open → |
| EURAUD | 56 | 21 / 35 |
37.5%
|
0.234 | -0.12% | open → |
| PLATINUM | 41 | 12 / 29 |
29.3%
|
0.131 | -5.82% | open → |
| GBPNZD | 49 | 13 / 36 |
26.5%
|
0.227 | -0.44% | open → |
| XAGUSD | 53 | 14 / 39 |
26.4%
|
0.359 | -7.24% | open → |
| PALLADIUM | 43 | 10 / 33 |
23.3%
|
0.189 | -3.90% | open → |
| GBPAUD | 53 | 12 / 41 |
22.6%
|
0.232 | -0.38% | open → |
| GBPJPY | 51 | 11 / 40 |
21.6%
|
0.229 | -0.47% | open → |
| XAUUSD | 22 thin | 14 / 8 |
63.6%
|
0.301 | +0.99% | open → |
| AUDJPY | 29 thin | 11 / 18 |
37.9%
|
0.207 | -0.46% | open → |
| EURJPY | 26 thin | 8 / 18 |
30.8%
|
0.23 | -0.37% | open → |
| DXY | 6 low n | 0 / 6 |
0.0%
|
0.137 | -1.81% | open → |
Ranked by confidence first, then hit rate. Green/red colouring only applies once a pair has ≥30 resolved calls — everything below that is rendered muted because it's statistical noise. A "low n" badge means fewer than 10 calls; "thin" means 10–29. Don't act on muted rows until they earn a real sample.
| Resolved | Pair | Call | Conviction | Move | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PLATINUM | SHORT | 0.20 | -4.09% | ✗ wrong | |
| AUDUSD | LONG | 0.18 | +1.61% | ✓ correct | |
| EURCAD | LONG | 0.40 | -0.34% | ✗ wrong | |
| PALLADIUM | SHORT | 0.36 | -1.86% | ✗ wrong | |
| USDCAD | SHORT | 0.58 | +0.75% | ✓ correct | |
| EURNZD | SHORT | 0.19 | -1.51% | ✗ wrong | |
| NZDJPY | LONG | 0.56 | +0.88% | ✓ correct | |
| CADJPY | SHORT | 0.59 | -2.75% | ✗ wrong | |
| GBPCHF | LONG | 0.63 | +1.13% | ✓ correct | |
| NZDUSD | LONG | 0.67 | -1.05% | ✗ wrong | |
| CHFJPY | SHORT | 0.46 | -1.12% | ✗ wrong | |
| GBPCAD | LONG | 0.38 | -0.46% | ✗ wrong | |
| EURGBP | LONG | 0.57 | +0.12% | ✓ correct | |
| XAGUSD | SHORT | 0.69 | -10.37% | ✗ wrong | |
| GBPNZD | LONG | 0.42 | +1.40% | ✓ correct | |
| EURCHF | LONG | 0.39 | +1.25% | ✓ correct | |
| EURAUD | LONG | 0.30 | -1.16% | ✗ wrong | |
| USDJPY | SHORT | 0.41 | -1.98% | ✗ wrong | |
| USDCHF | LONG | 0.15 | +0.83% | ✓ correct | |
| GBPAUD | LONG | 0.54 | -1.28% | ✗ wrong | |
| GBPJPY | LONG | 0.48 | +2.28% | ✓ correct | |
| WTI | LONG | 0.74 | +13.69% | ✓ correct | |
| BRENT | LONG | 0.26 | +13.74% | ✓ correct | |
| CADCHF | LONG | 0.62 | +1.59% | ✓ correct | |
| AUDCHF | LONG | 0.42 | +2.44% | ✓ correct |
Note: FX, metals and energy are scored (long = price up). US yields are excluded — "long a yield" is directionally ambiguous. Neutral biases aren't scored.