Building a Top-Down Bias
The synthesis — combining everything into one usable view
- Execute a step-by-step top-down bias-building process
- Combine inputs from every previous briefing into one structured view
- Compare your bias to FX Patrol's and know what to do with the gap
You've made it. Every briefing has been one piece. This is the synthesis — the actual process I use to build a high-conviction bias on any pair, using every tool in the Field Manual + the FX Patrol dashboard.
Step 1: Macro regime
What's the global regime? Risk-on or risk-off? Check S&P, US 10y, gold, credit spreads. One sentence to describe it. Example: 'Risk-on grinding; credit tight; equities at highs; yields range-bound.' Every pair's bias lives inside this regime.
Step 2: Which currencies are diverging?
Look at the three pillars for each currency in the pair. Rate: is the CB hiking, holding, or cutting vs the other CB? Growth: which surprise index is higher and trending up? Risk: which is the safe haven, which the high-beta in this regime? Build a side-by-side comparison.
Step 3: Check the dashboard's bias
Open FX Patrol. Read the bias, conviction, pillars, kill switches. Compare to your own view. If they align, conviction is high. If they conflict, ask: what does the engine see that I don't? Or what do I see that the engine missed? Both answers are valuable.
Step 4: Position and CoT
What's the speculator positioning? At extreme percentile, the trade is contrarian by default. Mid-range positioning, the trade is with the trend. Pair detail page shows the CoT 52-week percentile — that's your check.
Step 5: Technical entry + risk
You now have direction, conviction, positioning context. Open the chart. Wait for a technical entry in your direction. Sized by conviction × calibration. Risk = where the bias's kill switch triggers — that's your invalidation. Hold until kill switch fires OR thesis plays out.
You complete the 5-step process for GBP/USD. Conclusion: long GBP, conviction 0.7. Dashboard bias: long GBP, conviction 0.65. CoT: GBP speculator longs at 45th percentile (mid-range). Technical entry: pullback to 50-day MA. Best action?
- Step 1: Macro regime in one sentence
- Step 2: Three pillars for each currency in the pair
- Step 3: Compare your view to FX Patrol's
- Step 4: Check CoT positioning
- Step 5: Technical entry + kill-switch as invalidation
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